Probably Stolen beginner guide: scenarios, Augs, rent, patch tips

This Probably Stolen beginner guide covers what you need before your first shift: which starting scenario to pick, how the counter loop works, how to spot augmented customers and how to keep rent paid without losing your stock to Security. Questing Goose Studio's cyberpunk shopkeeping sim, published by tinyBuild, launched on PC on October 28, 2026 and has been one of the biggest Steam hits of the month, so a lot of new shopkeepers are asking the same questions.

What Probably Stolen is and how it plays

You are a former scavenger who landed a storefront on a towering space station split by wealth and corruption, thanks to a generous loan and questionable timing. Your business runs on merchandise with "flexible origins", and the Steam store page describes the loop plainly: buy goods, appraise them, resell them at a profit and earn enough to buy the shop out before rising rent forces your hand.

Each customer at the counter is a decision. According to the developers, today's visitor could be a security fisher looking for evidence, a revolutionary seeking leverage or a fallen elite testing your usefulness. You can approve a deal, refuse it, report it or look away, and someone is always taking notes. Reputation buys access and protection, but it also paints a target on your back.

Pick the right starting scenario

Your first real choice is the starting scenario. The 1.0 release shipped with nine, and tinyBuild's own launch post singles out one as the beginner pick: Apprentice is described as "best for beginners", a generalist start where you upgrade as you go and learn at your own pace. If this is your first run, take it.

The studio has also announced Organ Trader, Junker and Street Food Vendor scenarios for post-launch updates, so the list will grow.

Difficulty and your first run

After choosing a scenario you pick one of four difficulty options, from beginner-friendly to what the studio calls super hard mode. The in-game names that appear in the patch notes are Cozy, Normal, Hard and Challenge. The launch post suggests pairing the hardest setting with Rock Bottom if you want extra pain, which tells you how the two dials stack.

Also note the starting perks. Patch 1.0.0.12 changed the Lucky and Unlucky starting perks so that they now shift luck by 15 instead of 5, for new runs only. If you want a gentler first week, that is a bigger swing than it used to be, so read the perk text before you commit.

The daily loop: counter, appraisal, rent

1. Open the shop and call the next customerThe bell has a rebindable hotkey (B by default). Holding it dismisses the current customer, the same as holding the bell on screen.
2. Examine before you tradeUse the magnifying screen and your scanners. The store page stresses that every item carries its own risk and that you absorb the cost of a misjudged item or seller.
3. Decide: approve, refuse, report or look awayReporting pleases Security, looking away protects margins, and every choice moves faction reputation.
4. Stock and price the shelvesCustomers want different things, so variety and quality both change who walks in.
5. Check the calendar and pay rentThe calendar on the wall shows days left before rent. Keep a credit buffer so one confiscation does not sink you.
6. Close, review the Nightly Report and planMachines draw power overnight and the report warns you when your setup cannot cover it.

The core tension is that rent keeps rising while confiscated stock or one bad deal can leave you short. The Steam page puts it as every purchase needing to "earn its keep". In practice that means being picky early: a smaller stock you understand beats a full inventory you cannot verify.

How to spot augmented customers

A sentient AI chip went rogue and took its hosts with it. These "Augs" look like everyone else until they do not, and every faction agrees on the policy: you have a gun to enforce it. The game gives you a Security Department Augmented Identification Guide that you can open as a window while a customer stands at the counter.

• Visible aug chip. Look near the temple or eye area in the portrait.
• Unusual pupils. A listed visual sign in the guide.
• Uncanny expression. The third visual tell.
• Unnatural stillness and twitching. Non-visual cues, so read the animation as well as the face.
• Outfit not matching their faction. A customer dressed for one group who acts like another.
• Robotic or overly formal phrasing. A customer announcing "Initiating communication. I am a normal human." is the joke, but the pattern is real.

Missing the signs, or misreading them, carries its own price, so do not shoot on a hunch. Use two or three tells together before acting.

Product lines and what can go wrong

The developers frame it neatly: you are not choosing a theme for your shop, you are choosing which kind of trouble you are willing to monetize. Every product line has its own profit curve and its own way of ruining you.

You can also cut product quality, relabel counterfeit goods as genuine, or fence discounted stolen goods when you believe Security will not reach you. The store page warns there is always mob justice, suppliers overstate value, customers push their luck, and contraband often hides problems you only notice after the deal.

Water, the system patched most often

Water has seen the most balance work since launch. Patch 1.0.0.2 reduced the Moisture Farm from 650 to 350 credits and the Water Filter from 50 to 25, and lowered Dr. Jackson's markup from 25% to 15% on Normal. Patch 1.0.0.5 then cut the Water Purifier from 300 to 250. A stock purifier now cleans water to 99.01%. If you start as a Water Merchant, check the new prices before buying machines, and take the filter out of a Water Pitcher before offering it, because customers now tell you to remove it if you hand it over with the filter still inside.

Machines, power and the nightly report

Once rent is covered you can think bigger: expand your operation, run multiple businesses and unlock production chains. The machine bays, furnaces, storage and printers soon fill your screen, as the screenshot below shows.

Power matters. The Nightly Report now warns you when an alarm's cell cannot cover its nightly draw, and machine tooltips show a Required Energy warning when the source is not enough. Patch 1.0.0.12 also made the Current Converter count as a Tool and added Power Line Hijack II and III, which make Current Converters cheaper to run. Vending machines keep selling overnight after you close, which is a good passive earner once you can afford one.

Story characters and the 1.0.0.12 changes

Version 1.0 completed several storylines: the criminal mastermind Lou, Eleanor, Officer Lun and cadet Serpico, plus expanded backstories for criminals on the wanted list. The cumulative update 1.0.0.12, posted on November 6, 2026, changed several of them:

• Lou. Her demand after the disguise visit now depends on difficulty: 500 credits on Cozy, 750 on Normal, 1000 on Hard and 1500 on Challenge. She comes back for her box of "toys" the next day, giving you a chance to reload and change the outcome, and a Republic operative can now approach you to work against her.
• Eleanor. If she is arrested, Security offers her bail two days later: pay 500 credits, or vouch for her for free with at least 40 Security reputation.
• Serpico. Every night you leave him some food at the Dumping Ground without reaching the full amount, he holds out one more day. Georgio can leave it for 150 credits, or for free with at least 40 Lower Levels reputation.
• Shooting. You can now shoot most storyline characters, except essential service providers, to end their storyline immediately. Security usually treats this as ordinary manslaughter.

The same patch added quality-of-life options worth switching on: click a dialogue bubble to advance conversation, a dialogue bubble size slider from 50% to 150%, a "Move Bought Items to Inventory" option and a "Disable Pop Culture Characters" toggle. It also improved the fountain's earnings at most upgrade levels.

Ten quick tips for your first week

1. Start as an ApprenticeLearn the systems before you specialise.
2. Skip Sentinel Collapse DisorderThe developers themselves tell you to.
3. Use the identification guideStack several tells before you act on a suspected Aug.
4. Keep a rent bufferConfiscation can erase a week of margin in a night.
5. Inspect before resellingCigarettes, water, weapons and rare goods each need their check.
6. Mind reputationSeveral story payoffs unlock at 40 reputation with Security or the Lower Levels.
7. Save before story encountersLou's return is explicitly designed to allow a reload.
8. Check the Nightly ReportIt flags power shortfalls and lasting damage before they bite.
9. Start a new saveDemo saves carry over, but the studio recommends starting fresh to catch new storylines.
10. Update modsPatch 1.0.0.6 tightened modding security and some mods may need updating by their authors.

What's next: roadmap and community

On November 6 tinyBuild's developers celebrated one million shopkeepers and published a roadmap. They stated that November is all about polish, with bug fixes and quality-of-life work, that January and April updates will include more than the roadmap shows, and that every update on it will be free. Earlier posts list Expeditions, new appraisal items and a main storyline expansion that affects the station and the ending. Steam also offers Workshop support and a modding API, and the game has 21 achievements. You can follow the official announcements on the Steam community hub, and the launch details are in the 1.0 release post and the 1.0 content preview.

Looking for more walkthroughs and builds? Browse our Probably Stolen hub and the full guides section for the latest additions.

FAQ

Which starting scenario should I choose in Probably Stolen?

Apprentice. The developers describe it as best for beginners, a generalist start where you upgrade as you go and learn at your own pace.

Is Probably Stolen single-player?

Yes. The Steam page lists it as single-player, with Steam Workshop mod support, 21 achievements and Windows as the only supported platform at launch.

Can I carry over my demo save?

Demo saves carry over, but the studio strongly recommends starting a new game so you do not miss newly added storylines. The demo has been retired, and mods built for it probably will not work.

How much does Probably Stolen cost?

The Steam page lists it at $17.99 in the US at the time of writing, after a 10% launch discount on a $19.99 base price. A Supporter Edition adds the official soundtrack.

Will there be more content?

Yes. The developers promise free updates, including January and April content drops, new starting scenarios such as Organ Trader, Junker and Street Food Vendor, plus Expeditions and a storyline expansion.

Jules Rivera Souls specialist

Has finished every FromSoftware game at level 1. Writes the boss guides and checks them on every patch.